Saturday, 7 February 2009

Financial Coup d’Etat

In the fall of 2001 I attended a private investment conference in London to give a paper, The Myth of the Rule of Law or How the Money Works: The Destruction of Hamilton Securities Group.

The presentation documented my experience with a Washington-Wall Street partnership that had:

  • Engineered a fraudulent housing and debt bubble;
  • Illegally shifted vast amounts of capital out of the U.S.;
  • Used “privitization” as form or piracy - a pretext to move government assets to private investors at below-market prices and then shift private liabilities back to government at no cost to the private liability holder.

Other presenters at the conference included distinguished reporters covering privatization in Eastern Europe and Russia. As the portraits of British ancestors stared down upon us, we listened to story after story of global privatization throughout the 1990s in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.

Slowly, as the pieces fit together, we shared a horrifying epiphany: the banks, corporations and investors acting in each global region were the exact same players. They were a relatively small group that reappeared again and again in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Asia accompanied by the same well-known accounting firms and law firms.

Clearly, there was a global financial coup d’etat underway.

The magnitude of what was happening was overwhelming. In the 1990’s, millions of people in Russia had woken up to find their bank accounts and pension funds simply gone – eradicated by a falling currency or stolen by mobsters who laundered money back into big New York Fed member banks for reinvestment to fuel the debt bubble.

Reports of politicians, government officials, academics, and intelligence agencies facilitating the racketeering and theft were compelling. One lawyer in Russia, living without electricity and growing food to prevent starvation, was quoted as saying, “We are being de-modernized.”

Several years earlier, I listened to three peasant women describe the War on Drugs in their respective countries: Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. I asked them, “After they sweep you into camps, who gets your land and at what price?” My question opened a magic door. They poured out how the real economics worked on the War on Drugs, including the stealing of land and government contracts to build housing for the people who are displaced.

At one point, suspicious of my understanding of how this game worked, one of the women said, “You say you have never been to our countries, yet you understand exactly how the money works. How is this so?” I replied that I had served as Assistant Secretary of Housing at the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in the United States where I oversaw billions of government investment in US communities. Apparently, it worked the same way in their countries as it worked in mine.

I later found out that the government contractor leading the War on Drugs strategy for U.S. aid to Peru, Colombia and Bolivia was the same contractor in charge of knowledge management for HUD enforcement. This Washington-Wall Street game was a global game. The peasant women of Latin America were up against the same financial pirates and business model as the people in South Central Los Angeles, West Philadelphia, Baltimore and the South Bronx.

Later, courageous reporting by Naomi Klein and Greg Palast confirmed in detail that the privitization and economic warfare model I discussed in London had deep roots in Latin America.

We were experiencing a global “heist”: capital was being sucked out of country after country. The presentation I gave in London revealed a piece of the puzzle that was difficult for the audience to fathom. This was not simply happening in the emerging markets. It was happening in America, too.

I described a meeting that had occurred in April 1997, more than four years before that day in London. I had given a presentation to a distinguished group of U.S. pension fund leaders on the extraordinary opportunity to reengineer the U.S. federal budget. I presented our estimate that the prior year’s federal investment in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania area had a negative return on investment.

We presented that it was possible to finance places with private equity and reengineer the government investment to a positive return and, as a result, generate significant capital gains. Hence, it was possible to use U.S. pension funds to significantly increase retirees’ retirement security by successfully investing in American communities, small business and farms — all in a manner that would reduce debt, improve skills, and create jobs.

The response from the pension fund investors to this analysis was quite positive until the President of the CalPERS pension fund — the largest in the country — said, “You don’t understand. It’s too late. They have given up on the country. They are moving all the money out in the fall [of 1997]. They are moving it to Asia.”

Sure enough, that fall, significant amounts of moneys started leaving the US, including illegally. Over $4 trillion went missing from the US government. No one seemed to notice. Misled into thinking we were in a boom economy by a fraudulent debt bubble engineered with force and intention from the highest levels of the financial system, Americans were engaging in an orgy of consumption that was liquidating the real financial equity we needed urgently to reposition ourselves for the times ahead.

The mood that afternoon in London was quite sober. The question hung in the air, unspoken: once the bubble was over, was the time coming when we, too, would be “de-modernized?”

In 2009 — more than seven years later — this is a question that many of us are asking ourselves.

Interest rates: Bank of England accused of 'assault' on savers

The Bank of England was accused of launching an "assault" on savers as it slashed interest rates to a new record low.


Consumer groups and trade bodies expressed anger at the latest 0.5 per cent reduction, arguing that it penalised savers, while doing little to help the majority of borrowers.

They also voiced concerns that with the returns on deposit accounts already at a record low, people would be put off saving, further reducing the supply of funds available to banks and building societies for mortgage lending.

Adrian Coles, director-general of the Building Societies Association, said: "The rate cut is an assault on savers who will have seen their interest payments drop by 83 per cent since July 2007.

"Savers dependent on interest income have not seen prices fall by a similar amount - their lifestyles have taken a significant blow."

He added that savers with building societies outnumbered borrowers by nearly eight to one.

The sector has 23 million savers, although there will be some duplication in the figure from people who hold accounts with more than one society, compared with only 2.9m mortgage customers.

Pensioners, who rely on returns from their savings to supplement their income, have been particularly hard hit by the recent interest-rate slide.

Figures from website Moneynet.co.uk showed that nearly a quarter of variable rate savings accounts for balances of £500 currently pay returns of 0.1 per cent or less.

The Bank of England also published figures last month which showed that in December, interest paid on notice accounts, tax-free ISAs and bonds was the lowest since records began in 1995, while the average return on instant access accounts was just 0.81 per cent.

The already-low figures do not factor in the impact of January's 0.5 per cent cut, which was passed on, at least in part, by the majority of savings providers.

Andrew Hagger, of Moneynet, said: "Pensioners and those who rely on a monthly income from their nest egg to supplement their income are being driven to despair as they are increasingly forced to dig into their capital just to make ends meet."

He added that with interest rates so low, people should consider doing other things with their money, such as repaying debt.

Saga Personal Finance said savers and pensioners were the "innocent victims of the credit crunch".

Roger Ramsden, chief executive of Saga Personal Finance, said: "Savers have seen interest rates slashed from 5.75 per cent 18 months ago to 1 per cent today which has resulted in a significant drop in savings incomes.

"For example, someone who invested £20,000 in one of our fixed rate bonds last year would have received £115 per month interest after tax, however those opening accounts at the new 1 per cent rate from today would receive £45 per month.

"The recent rate cuts have had limited effect on the economy other than supporting those on variable-rate mortgages.

"The cuts have hit savers hard, particularly those in retirement who rely on monthly interest from their savings, this means that the effect of the rate cut has been to take money out of the economy as people have less interest to spend."

Simon Hodge, an independent financial adviser on Rubii.co.uk, also warned that the current "dire returns" on savings accounts could tempt pensioners and other cautious savers to put their money into riskier investments that were not appropriate for them.

Kevin Mountford, head of banking at moneysupermarket.com, said, "We are now getting dangerously close to the point where people will say it's just not worth saving.

"Following the rate cut in January we ran a poll of our users which found over two-thirds were angered by continuing rate cuts.

"The Government needs to apply some vision and kickstart the savings culture - as opposed to killing it."

In times of crisis, Parisians take to scavenging

By Elizabeth Pineau

PARIS (Reuters Life!) - It's closing time at a market in Belleville, a working-class neighborhood in Paris, and a young woman in a black parka and white cap is rummaging through the abandoned crates.

After a thorough inspection, she slips a cauliflower and some slightly squashed oranges into her shopping bag.

"That's going to be my dinner," says the woman, who will only give her name as Yng.

Nearby, an old man with a black beret selects two mangoes from the bottom of a battered cardboard box. He earlier bought a bag of apples, then filled his basket with discarded fruit and vegetables.

"Glanage," or gleaning, is a French tradition that reaches back to the Middle Ages, when people would go over the fields after the harvest and gather any crops that remained.

But today, the practice is becoming more widespread in cities, in what charity workers and social activists describe as a sign of growing economic despair.

FIGHTING OVER FOOD

At the market in Belleville, three women curse each other in French and Arabic as they fight over a bag of leeks.

"Those are mine, I picked them up," one of them says, pressing the bulging bag to her chest.

"Thief!" another one shouts at her.

Around them, more than 10 other people of all ages gather as much as they can before the cleaning crew arrives. Some of the traders encourage them.

"It's a gift, a gift," says Ali, a stall owner who declines to give his second name. "I give it away, otherwise it would just be discarded anyway," he adds, as two women hastily fill their blue plastic bags before hurrying away.

"It's difficult for me, I have six children and my husband is dead," says a woman in a black headscarf. Like the other foragers, she prefers to remain anonymous.

Fields and markets are no longer the only hunting grounds of thrifty "glaneurs." Every evening, people collect fruit, eggs and yoghurts past their expiry date from containers behind the big supermarkets.

Christophe Auxerre, national secretary of Secours Populaire, a charity, sees the revival in foraging as a symbol of growing social problems.

"There are people who go hungry in our country. On the 15th of every month, there's no money left to fill the plates," he said. "There are shop owners who deliberately put the eggs on top in the rubbish bin so that people can pick them up."

His charity has helped two million people in 2008, compared with 1.5 million in 2007.

"WILD PICNIC"

A report presented last week by Martin Hirsch, a left-wing former charity boss who is now in charge of a government-backed social welfare program, found that today's "glaneurs" come from a great variety of social backgrounds.

"(The economic crisis) is one more element in the picture of a vulnerable section of society, who have to be helped in a very concrete way," Hirsch told reporters.

"Apart from the poverty line, there's the concept of 'what's left to live on' -- what's left to pay for food, clothing, transport and so on -- and for some people, that's just a few euros per day," he added.

For a small group of scavengers, gathering discarded food is also a way of protesting against a consumerist society and its wastefulness, and against the rising cost of living in France.

Left-wing activists have been organizing "wild picnics" in supermarkets for the past few months, taking products off the shelves and offering them to customers for free -- a creative interpretation of a French law that gives customers the right to taste certain products before buying them.

"We do that at the end of each month, when the pockets are empty. It allows us to pass on a message: everything is going up, except salaries," said Victor Porcel, a member of l'Appel et la Pioche, a left-wing movement.

Revolt brews in counties

Published: Thursday, Feb. 05, 2009 | Page 1A

Counties in California say they've had enough – and they aren't going to take it anymore.

In what amounts to a Boston Tea Party-style revolt against the state Capitol, they're threatening to withhold money.

Los Angeles is considering such an option. And Colusa County supervisors said they authorized payment delays for February.

"We didn't vote on it, because I don't think anybody wants to go to jail," Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann said.

Closer to home, Sacramento County is planning to file a lawsuit this week against the state and Controller John Chiang for withholding millions of dollars – much of it for social service programs.

"The Legislature authorized those expenditures, and (the controller) has decided to withhold it," said Susan Peters, chairwoman of the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors. "I believe it's possible other counties will be joining in the action."

Riverside County is looking at a similar lawsuit but plans to go one step further. It authorized going to court to relieve it from having to provide state-mandated services without state funding.

Hallye Jordan, a controller spokeswoman, said Chiang "shares the frustration of counties" but was forced to act because of the failure of the Legislature and governor to address the budget deficit.

"It's an awful situation," she said. "We understand that many counties are suffering."

Regardless, a coalition of six Southern California counties is headed to Sacramento for a Feb. 12 meeting to call attention to the counties' plight, Riverside County spokeswoman Lys Mendez said.

By the time leaders from Riverside, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Imperial and San Bernardino counties come together, the revolt could be at full steam.

"I think it just reflects the severity of the problem, and folks are just trying to find a way to keep (programs) going," said Jim Wiltshire, deputy director of the California State Association of Counties.

Frustration has been spreading since last week, when the state controller vowed to delay payments to counties for health and social services.

"When we hear things like, 'We're out of cash and you're going to have to borrow the money,' it doesn't make us very happy," Yolo County Supervisors' Chairman Mike McGowan said.

McGowan said the county would look for a way to fund vital services such as mental health programs, CalWORKS, food stamps and child protective services.

That would mean borrowing about $5 million to cover mandated program expenses, McGowan said.

"We've heard rumors that the (state's) deferral approach will be longer than one month," he said.

In that case, McGowan added, there are smaller counties that will "simply go out of business. They'll not be able to borrow the money."

One budget proposal calls for the state to delay $3.5 billion in payments to counties over seven months, Wiltshire said.

"Counties just don't have the cash position to operate those programs and wait for a check to come in September," he said.

The rumor that the state could extend the delayed payments to counties sent a chill through Colusa County, which qualifies as small with only 22,000 people.

If the state delays payments for a longer period, "we can stay open for three months – period," Colusa County's Vann said.

If all counties withheld funds, money denied the state would total $675 million over a year, said Wiltshire.

That amount represents court receipts that counties remit to the state, he said.

In addition to filing suit, Sacramento County officials are considering withholding money. While counties do collect property taxes for the state, county officials doubted that money would come into play.

"We need to know the ramifications before we do something rash that has consequences," Supervisor Roberta MacGlashan said.

While deferring property tax revenue money to the state might seem like a good idea, that money goes in part to fund education. The county doesn't want to hurt schools while taking a stand against the controller's actions, she added.

There also could be a cost to withholding money from the state.

Terri Sexton, associate director of the Center for State and Local Taxation at the University of California, Davis, said she's never seen anything like this grass-roots revolt.

"But, of course, the state has never been in this fiscal position," Sexton said. "At some level, it doesn't make any difference whether the counties are suing the state or whatever.

"You can't squeeze blood out of a turnip. The money doesn't exist. What does it ultimately mean? Will there be cutbacks in those services? I think that's where we're headed."

Los Angeles County started the movement Tuesday when its Board of Supervisors considered holding back money from the state in a move that screamed: Give us our money or you won't get yours.

"The deal is the county has got bills to pay," said Gerry Hertzberg, policy director for Supervisor Gloria Molina. "If the state doesn't act, how do you plan how to budget?"

Los Angeles County is expecting to miss out on as much as $105 million a month as a result of the deferred state payments.

Other counties are in similar positions, so it came as no surprise to Hertzberg that others might join the revolution.

"It's not at all surprising," Hertzberg said. "We've got obligations."

Sacramento County's MacGlashan said despite the counties' threats to withhold, she wasn't certain all would follow through.

"It's really more of a stunt," she said. "But sometimes it takes a stunt to get people's attention."

In the Red, Toyota Sees Loss Tripling

Published: February 6, 2009

TOKYO — The global downturn is threatening the Toyota Motor Company’s most sacrosanct traditions.

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Toru Yamanaka/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Toyota, which expects an operating loss of $3.9 billion in 2008, plans to introduce a new version of its hybrid Prius in May.

Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, said Friday that it expected to suffer a loss this year, thanks to rapidly declining sales around the world, especially in the United States. The company is expecting its first full-year operating loss since 1937 — 350 billion yen ($3.9 billion) — more than double its previous forecast.

The company’s 2008 fiscal year ends on March 31.

It widened its forecast for an operating loss on its main automotive business to 450 billion yen, or $5 billion, attributing the larger loss to both steep declines in global auto sales and strong gains by the Japanese currency, the yen, which lowers the yen-denominated value of overseas earnings.

The global downturn has pummeled global auto sales, but Toyota had appeared somewhat resistant. No longer.

The last time Toyota posted a net loss was 59 years ago, when it operated under different accounting rules. Then, Toyota was in a financial crisis that led to the departure of its founder, Kiichiro Toyoda.

The automaker, which passed General Motors in 2008 to become the world’s biggest auto company, recently named Akio Toyoda, the grandson of its founder, as its president, succeeding Katsuaki Watanabe. Mr. Toyoda will take charge in June, when Mr. Watanabe becomes vice chairman.

In December, Toyota predicted an operating loss for 2008 of 150 billion yen, and said it expected to earn a small net profit, even though most analysts predicted that its operations would end up in the red for the year.

A net operating loss for 2008 would be the first since the company was founded in 1937 as a unit of the Toyoda family’s automated loom company.

Toyota officials insisted Friday that despite the deteriorating forecast, they would maintain benefits that seem to be a part of Toyota’s culture, from lifelong employment to innovations like hybrid designs. For now, Toyota is not planning to cut permanent jobs, although it has eliminated work for some temporary employees. Analysts have been watching closely to see if the company will end its practice of lifetime employment, which it instituted six decades ago.

“Of course, any individual could leave voluntarily, but we will never fire those employees against their will,” Takahiro Ijichi, a senior managing director, told American analysts in a conference call. “We have never done that.”

Toyota said it was still investing in hybrid-electric and compact vehicles and expected to introduce a new version of its popular Prius hybrid sedan in May. At the Detroit auto show last month, the automaker said it would start selling the first dedicated hybrid model in its Lexus luxury brand this summer.

Sales in the United States have dropped by a third in recent months, but the company is planning new product lineups for regions around the world that it hopes will fare better in the tighter economic environment.

“The financial problems have spread directly to the real economy,” Mitsuo Kinoshita, an executive vice president, told reporters. “We cannot tell what will happen next year but we hope we are now hitting the bottom.”

Analysts were not sure that was the case. “Toyota is going to get worse before it gets better,” said Tairiku Sakaguchi, an auto analyst at Shinko Securities in Tokyo. “The question is how quickly they can move to deal with inventory, excess production capacity and other problems.”

On Friday, Toyota said it was pressing forward with an overhaul guided by a special Emergency Profit Improvement Committee, which the company established in November.

Besides cutting costs by 10 percent, the company said it was canceling or postponing the construction of plants worldwide. It has already put off opening its plant in Blue Springs, Miss., that had been scheduled to begin production in 2010. Toyota executives said the factory would not be scrapped.

Toyota posted a net loss of 164.7 billion yen ($1.8 billion) in the three months ending Dec. 31. In the same quarter last year, the company posted a 458.6 billion yen, or $5 billion, net profit.

The company said it was particularly hard hit in North America, traditionally its most profitable market. Toyota said vehicle sales in North America dropped 31 percent during the quarter compared with the same period last year to 521,000 units. The sales decline and losses on interest-rate swaps led to an operating loss of 247.4 billion yen, or $2.7 billion, in North America.

In Japan, its home market, Toyota posted a 164.2 billion yen, or $1.8 billion, operating loss after vehicle sales dropped 14 percent. In Europe, Toyota’s vehicle sales dropped 24 percent, pushing the company to a 43.4 billion yen, or $480 million, operating loss.

The company said it fared better in China and other developing markets, where it avoided a loss despite declining profits and sales. Toyota said its vehicle sales in Asia fell 8 percent, to 222,000 units.

China’s Unemployment Swells as Exports Falter

Published: February 5, 2009

GUANGZHOU, China — Hundreds of thousands of migrant workers are returning here earlier than usual from their home villages after the Chinese New Year holiday. Lugging their belongings in plastic sacks and cardboard boxes, they are hoping to find increasingly scarce jobs. Many will fail.

Tim O'Rourke for The New York Times

Chinese migrant workers are returning by the millions to the industrial region near Guangzhou but many are unable to find work.

Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Migrant workers look for jobs in Guangzhou in Southern China. About 20 million migrant workers are unemployed, China says.

Liu Yijiang, a 21-year-old worker from Guangxi Province, stopped his bicycle in front of a factory’s gate and explained that he had been unable to find work since he was laid off late last year by a ceiling lamp factory and went home to his village.

“I came back early to see if I can find a job,” he said. “A lot of my friends are out of work.”

A spokeswoman for the Guangdong Provincial Labor and Social Security Bureau said Thursday that 3 million of an expected 9.7 million migrant workers had returned to the province by Wednesday evening. Many have jobs waiting for them, but two million have no employment lined up and must look for work, she said.

Beijing authorities disclosed Monday that based on an agriculture ministry survey of villages just before the Chinese New Year holiday last week, about 20 million of the nation’s 130 million migrant workers are unemployed.

In the factory city of Dongguan, adjacent to Guangzhou, many plants have deferred reopening for up to three weeks for lack of orders from the United States and Europe, said Eddie Leung, the chairman of the Dongguan Association of Foreign Invested Enterprises.

At Fortunique, a manufacturer of hospital gowns and other protective wear on the southern outskirts of Guangzhou, about 50 men and women showed up early Thursday morning looking in vain for jobs. More came to the gate through the day.

“I haven’t seen that since the early 1990s,” when China’s economic boom was still in its early stages, said Charles Hubbs, the company’s owner.

Security forces are taking precautions to prevent social unrest. Police officers were positioned every few feet along the walls and fences outside the main railway station here on Thursday. Endless throngs of arrivals poured out of the massive building, their faces haggard after journeys that can be 30 hours or more in rail cars that often offer standing room only.

At the nearby intercity bus station, loudspeakers tied with police tape to streetlamps told arrivals over and over again, “Do not loiter or stand at the station. Move on quickly. Do not sit or squat.”

One big question is where penniless migrant workers will sleep until they find jobs or return home. Factories here in the Pearl River delta region of Southeastern China, which accounts for nearly a third of China’s exports, typically provide dormitories for a majority of their workers.

The rest, particularly married workers, live in crowded nearby apartments.

But factories that have shut down have closed their dormitories. Unemployed workers seem to be staying with friends in local apartments for now, manufacturing and human resources managers said. The provincial labor bureau announced Tuesday that it was setting up free job fairs in the cities. But the bureau also said it would offer numerous subsidies for workers willing to leave the cities and go to rural areas — including free vocational classes, subsidized school fees for children and a waiver of government fees for the registration of new small businesses.

Guangdong Province accounts for nearly a third of China’s exports, making it especially vulnerable as Western retailers sharply reduce orders to focus on selling the inventory they already have.

Electric utility use was down nearly 8 percent in December from a year ago in Guangdong and across China. Electricity is an excellent barometer of the Chinese economy because most usage is industrial, said Jing Ulrich, the chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase.

But Guangdong’s actual decline in electricity use is much greater. At least one-fifth of all electricity generated in the province until the last few months was produced by tens of thousands of diesel generators in the backyards of factories, because the provincial grid, unable to keep pace with growth, imposed severe rationing.

This winter, all rationing has been lifted and factories have unlimited access to inexpensive electricity from the grid, so the backyard generators have been shut down.

Wage demands, another barometer of economic health, have plunged. Skilled workers who used to demand up to $430 a month are eagerly accepting jobs that pay half as much, managers here said.

“They just want a job — no demands on salary,” Mr. Hubbs, the Fortunique owner, said.

One big mystery is how many factories have closed permanently and how many are simply giving long holiday furloughs to their workers. Provincial and national statistics on businesses and factories are often contradictory. And government statistics on unemployment over all are not considered reliable.

Another big mystery is what effect unemployment will have on the number of strikes and other protests that occur here regularly. Some experts are worried.

“It’s more possible to cause social unrest if the workers cannot find jobs,” said Liu Kaiming, the executive director of the Institute for Contemporary Observation, an advocacy group for labor rights in Shenzhen, a factory city that abuts Dongguan and Hong Kong.

In the last two years, there was — on average — one strike a day involving 1,000 or more workers in the Pearl River delta, and many more strikes by smaller groups of workers, said Han Dongfang, the director of the China Labor Bulletin, an advocacy group in Hong Kong that wants to see independent labor unions and collective bargaining in mainland China.

He cautioned that the frequency of strikes in the region made it hard to tell whether a recent spate of strikes reported in the Hong Kong news media was the result of greater social friction, or simply more reporting in response to the global economic downturn.

Beijing authorities plan rapid increases in economic stimulus spending in Guangdong to offset the downturn in exports here. The focus will be on building more roads, bridges and rail lines in a region that already has some of China’s best infrastructure.

But even as government investment starts to accelerate, private investment is declining, which may endanger more jobs.

Preliminary results from a study just completed by the American Chamber of Commerce of South China, which looked at 551 mostly foreign companies, found that they planned to invest $6.5 billion this year. A similar study a year ago found plans to invest $11 billion in the next year.

“We’re seeing people investing more methodically and more cautiously,” said Harley Seyedin, the chamber’s president.

Separately, a national survey of Chinese purchasing managers, released Wednesday, showed that most expected the economy to continue to worsen, although the expected steepness of the decline had moderated somewhat.

Stanley Lau, the deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, which represents the owners of the 60,000 factories in the region controlled by Hong Kong business officials, estimated that 10 percent of these factories had already closed in the last year because of more stringent government policies on labor, taxes and the environment.

Another 5 to 10 percent could close soon because of weaker export orders. “I’m sure there will be more to come,” he said.

Now better-heeled Americans are defaulting on mortgages

THE days when subprime mortgages were what kept bankers awake at night are long gone—though thanks only to the barrage of explosions in other corners of finance. In terms of toxicity, however, subprime has had no equal. Until now, perhaps. Even as credit markets, particularly corporate-debt markets, show some signs of improvement, mortgage loans to supposedly better-heeled Americans are souring at a gut-wrenching rate.

Of particular concern are “Alt-A” mortgages, offered to borrowers sandwiched between subprime and prime. This market was trumpeted as a means of extending home ownership to those, such as the self-employed, with a reasonable credit standing but unsteady income. Its practitioners specialised in loans with scant documentation and exotica such as negative-amortisation mortgages, which allow borrowers to pay less than the accrued interest, with the difference added to the loan balance.

That Alt-A has troubles comes as no surprise. Last summer, for instance, it helped to bring down IndyMac, a Californian bank. But the speed with which loans have soured in recent months, and the reaction of rating agencies, have been startling. Delinquencies rocketed in the final months of 2008. They even rose sharply for loans made in 2005, before underwriting turned really sloppy (see chart).

The rating agencies are rushing to catch up with this grim reality. Moody’s, which last summer had issued a sanguine outlook for Alt-A, recently quadrupled its loss projections on bonds backed by such loans. A steady flow of downgrades has turned into a flood in recent weeks, with thousands of Alt-A tranches taking the plunge. The falls have been unusually steep: of the $59 billion of AAA-rated securities that Moody’s cut between January 29th and February 2nd, an astonishing 91% went straight to junk, according to Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities. In ratings terms, Alt-A is doing worse than subprime.

Moody’s calls this “unprecedented”. That is putting it mildly. It now expects losses for 2006-07 Alt-A securitisations to top 20%, compared with an historical average of well under 1%. In an ugly echo of the fiasco over collateralised-debt obligations, holders lower down the structure can expect total write-offs, while the vast majority of senior holders will not be spared substantial losses.

The sums involved are depressingly large. In the worst case, losses on the $600 billion of securitised Alt-A debt outstanding—roughly the same as the stock of subprime securities—could reach $150 billion, reckons David Watts of CreditSights, a research firm. Analysts at Goldman Sachs put possible write-downs on the $1.3 trillion of total Alt-A debt—including both securitised and unsecuritised loans—at $600 billion, almost as much as expected subprime losses. Add in option ARMs, a particularly virulent type of adjustable-rate loan, many of which are essentially the same as Alt-A, and the potential hit climbs towards $1 trillion.

Part of the problem is that much of the Alt-A lending came at the tail-end of the credit boom in late 2006 and early 2007. By then, subprime was already getting a bad name. So Wall Street hit on a ruse: it took borrowers who in normal times would have been subprime and dressed them up as “mid-prime”. Many of these loans were doomed from the start. According to the Bank for International Settlements, a staggering 40% of American mortgages originated in the first quarter of 2007 were interest-only or negative-amortisation loans.

In theory, interest-rate declines over the past year should offset the “payment shock” felt by borrowers whose loans reset from low teaser rates to higher ones. But house prices have fallen so steeply that perhaps half of all Alt-A borrowers are in negative equity; for many, walking away may seem the best option. Moreover, option-ARM borrowers who had not expected to start repaying principal until 2015 or later may now have to do so as early as this year, because they are hitting triggers that recast the loan early. Government efforts to stem foreclosures should help these unfortunates, though they may do little for owners of mortgage-backed bonds, who could face higher losses as a result of “cramdowns”, in which bankruptcy courts order a reduction in the principal owed.

Alt-Aaaaaargh

The pain will be felt across the financial industry. Insurance firms, which gobbled up large but unknown quantities of highly rated Alt-A paper, will now be forced sellers since they are not permitted to hold securities rated below investment grade.

Banks have already sold a sizeable chunk of their Alt-A holdings to hedge funds and other asset-management firms, often at large discounts. UBS’s exposure has fallen from $26.6 billion to just $2.3 billion, for instance. But other European banks were not so zealous. ING, a Dutch bank, still has €27.7 billion ($35.1 billion) of Alt-A debt. American banks are sitting on perhaps $800 billion of the stuff.

As the market prices of mortgage securities have fallen, banks have had to mark down their holdings, taking “unrealised” losses that erode their capital position. Multi-notch downgrades could put further downward pressure on prices. They hit capital in another way, too, because junk-rated debt carries a punitive risk weighting; banks must set aside five times as much capital as they have to for top-notch securities. Rating cuts also affect income statements, by pushing banks to acknowledge that losses which they had classified as temporary are now permanent.

The weakest may now need to raise fresh equity. If they are lucky, banks will be able to palm some of the risk on to governments via asset guarantees or “bad banks” that assume their noxious assets. The Dutch government has agreed to bear the risk on much of ING’s Alt-A holdings, and Citigroup’s $11.4 billion exposure to Alt-A bonds falls under a guarantee that formed part of its November bail-out. It will receive further help from the industry-wide bank-rescue package that the Obama administration is preparing.

What the taxpayer will get in return is far from clear. Officials are still wrestling with how to value beaten-up mortgages. Assessing the worth of Alt-A loans can be especially tricky because they are maddeningly heterogeneous, thanks to a broad assortment of payment options. Less rigorous banks carry some holdings at around 60 cents on the dollar. Morgan Stanley’s are marked at half that. Its shares have rebounded recently, partly on hopes that it will be able to write up these securities once the government unveils its bail-out.

The biggest single Alt-A casualties are America’s bungling mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They waded into the market in 2006-07, snaffling up business in red-hot states such as California and Arizona, comforted by down-payments of 20%. When house prices there fell by more than that, they were left holding the first loss, since borrowers who put in that much equity do not have to take out mortgage insurance.

Rotten as Alt-A loans are, worse may be to come. As unemployment in America heads towards 8%, even strongly underwritten loans will go bad. Bankers are growing increasingly anxious about the $1.1 trillion of prime mortgage loans and securities, much of which they held on to themselves, assuming it to be bombproof. This sits on their books at “much more optimistic” values than lower-grade mortgages, says one. Some 70% of prime securities will eventually have their ratings cut, according to a “downgrade-o-meter” produced by JPMorgan Chase. As Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter, puts it: “The mortgage storm’s first wave was subprime. Now we are being buffeted by Alt-A. But a bigger wave is on the horizon, and it cuts across all loan types.”

Peter Schiff: Stimulus Bill Will Lead to "Unmitigated Disaster"

Posted Feb 06, 2009 08:05am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession
The fiscal stimulus bill being debated in Congress not only won't help the economy, it will make the recession much worse, says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

Schiff scoffs at the notion the economic decline is starting to level off and concedes no government action means a "terrible" recession. But the path of increased government intervention will lead to "unmitigated disaster," says Schiff, who gained notoriety in 2007-08 for his prescient calls on the housing bubble and U.S. stocks.

The problem, he says, is the government is trying to perpetuate a "phony economy" based on borrowing and spending. With the U.S. consumer tapped out, the government is "now taking on the mantle" of consumer of last resort, he continues, predicting the bond bubble will soon burst - if it hasn't already - ultimately leading to a collapse of the dollar and an "inflationary depression worse than anything any of us have ever seen."

If nothing else, Schiff is an nonpartisan critic of American policymakers, comparing President Bush to Herbert Hoover and President Obama to FDR, and neither in a favorable way.

Note: Stay tuned for part 2 of my interview with Schiff, where he addresses recent criticism of his investing prowess.

Driven down by debt, Dubai expats give new meaning to long-stay car park

For many expatriate workers in Dubai it was the ultimate symbol of their tax-free wealth: a luxurious car that few could have afforded on the money they earned at home.

Now, faced with crippling debts as a result of their high living and Dubai’s fading fortunes, many expatriates are abandoning their cars at the airport and fleeing home rather than risk jail for defaulting on loans.

Police have found more than 3,000 cars outside Dubai’s international airport in recent months. Most of the cars – four-wheel drives, saloons and “a few” Mercedes – had keys left in the ignition.

Some had used-to-the-limit credit cards in the glove box. Others had notes of apology attached to the windscreen.

“Every day we find more and more cars,” said one senior airport security official, who did not want to be named. “Christmas was the worst – we found more than two dozen on a single day.”

When the market collapsed and the emirate’s once-booming economy started to slow down, many expatriates were left owning several homes and unable to pay the mortgages without credit.

“There were a lot of people living the high life, investing in real estate and a lifestyle they couldn’t afford,” one senior banker said.

Under Sharia, which prevails in Dubai, the punishment for defaulting on a debt is severe. Bouncing a check, for example, is punishable with jail. Those who flee the emirate are known as skips.

The abandoned cars underscore a worrying trend. Five years ago the Emir, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, embarked on an ambitious plan to transform Dubai into a hub for business and tourism. A building boom fuelled double-digit growth, with thousands of Westerners arriving every day, eager to cash in on the emirate’s promise of easy living and wealth.

Many Westerners invested in Dubai’s skyrocketing real estate market, buying and reselling homes before building was even complete. But, as the recession took effect, property and financial companies made thousands of workers redundant and banks tightened lending. Construction companies have delayed or cancelled projects and tourism is slowing.

There are increasing signs that the foreigners who once flocked to Dubai are leaving. “There is no way of tracking actual numbers, but the anecdotal evidence is overwhelming. Dubai is emptying out,” said a Western diplomat.

International schools are having to be flexible on fees as expatriate parents run out of cash. Louise, a single mother from Britain, said that her son’s school had allowed her to pay a partial fee until she found a new job after her redundancy in December. “According to the headmaster, a lot of people had come into the school saying they had lost their jobs so the school was trying to be a bit more flexible,” she said.

Most of the emirate’s banks are not affiliated with British financial institutions, so those who flee do not have to worry about creditors. Their abandoned cars are eventually sold off by the banks at weekly auctions. Those recently advertised include BMWs, Porsches and Mercedes.

Simon Goldsmith, a spokesman for the British Embassy in Dubai, said that that there were approximately 100,000 Britons living in Dubai last year. However, the embassy has no way of tracking how many have fled back to the UK. “We’ve heard stories, but when somebody makes that kind of decision, they generally keep it to themselves,” he said.

Police have issued warrants against owners of the deserted cars. Those who return risk arrest at the airport.

Heading home

3.62 million expatriates in Dubai

864,000 nationals

8% population decline predicted this year, as expatriates leave

1,500 visas cancelled every day in Dubai

62% of homes occupied by expatriates 60% fall in property values predicted

50% slump in the price of luxury apartments on Palm Jumeirah

25% reduction in luxury spending among UAE expatriates

Sources: arabbusiness.com ; Times database

Money Central: The 10 people most responsible for the recession

US suffers biggest job losses since 1974

The US economy suffered its biggest loss of jobs in January since the 1970s, driving to 3.6 million the number of Americans who have been put out of work since the recession began in late 2007.


The depth of the current downturn has drawn comparisons with the Great Depression of the 1930s
The depth of the current downturn has drawn comparisons with the Great Depression of the 1930s

Figures released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics show 598,000 jobs were lost in the public and private sectors last month – the most since December 1974, and 11pc more than the 540,000 figure economists had predicted. The Bureau also revised upwards the estimate of jobs lost in December, from 524,000 to 577,000.

The overall unemployment rate in the US, which is calculated using slightly separate figures, rose to 7.6pc, the highest in 16 years. 11.3m Americans are now out of work.

Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, agreed, saying: "If ever there were an economy in need of stimulus, this is it.” Mr Sheperdson called the data set "another horrific report, showing job losses across the economy."

The new figures mean that 3.6m Americans have now lost their job since the US recession began in December 2007, with a rapid acceleration in losses in the last three months.

No sector of the economy was spared in January, with the manufacturing sector bleeding 207,000 posts, construction 111,000, and retail 45,000 jobs. Well-known companies to axe workers included Microsoft and Boeing, with more than 60,000 job losses announced on one day – January 26 – alone.

The White House said the numbers highlighted the need for bold fiscal action, as the US Senate resumed debate of President Barack Obama’s near-$900bn economic stimulus package. Christina Romer, who chairs the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, said that the numbers reflected the largest 13 month job loss since payroll records began in 1939.

“If we fail to act, we are likely to lose millions more jobs and the unemployment rate could reach double digits. The American people are counting on leadership from Washington to help the economy recover and lay the long-term foundation for long-term economic growth,” added Ms Romer.

Goldman Sachs’ chief US economist Jan Hatzius said the numbers were as they bad as they looked, and implied that there was still a downside risk to the bank’s forecast of a gross domestic product decline of 4.5pc in the first three months of the year.

President Obama is later on Friday expected to name the new members of his Economic Recovery Advisory Board, to be led by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker. Members are set to include General Electric chair Jeff Immelt and UBS Americas chairman Robert Wolf.

In Ireland, "the game is up"

DUBLIN — At 2 a.m., with time for compromise running out, the Irish prime minister finally presented his emergency plan for the floundering economy to the country’s trade union leaders.

He proposed an average 7 percent reduction in gross pay for bureaucrats, teachers, police, firefighters, road cleaners and everyone else on the public payroll, in the form of a levy to finance their pensions.

He made clear that without an agreement the government would do it anyway.

Inevitably the union leaders said “No.” They couldn't sell it to their members.

At 4 a.m. the delegates acknowledged that Ireland’s unique social partnership had broken down; they left the government buildings, and staggered off through the driving sleet to get some sleep.

This afternoon in the Irish parliament, Dail Eireann, a haggard-looking Taoiseach Brian Cowen announced that the government would legislate immediately for his proposals.

With his bleary-eyed finance minister Brian Lenihan beside him, he spelled out other measures to cut expenditures by 2 billion euros (about $2.6 billion) this year, including reduced fees to doctors and lawyers on state contracts, a smaller child care supplement for parents and a reduction in overseas development aid.

Cowen then appeared on television at prime time to make what amounted to a state of the nation address.

“We are experiencing the most profound economic crisis in 70 years,” he intoned solemnly. “The Irish economy is suffering from the aftermath of a large housing and construction boom and a loss of competitiveness … exacerbated by the decline in the value of sterling (the pound) relative to the euro (Ireland’s currency).”

Declaring what amounted to a national emergency, he warned that, “We are borrowing half our day-to-day expenses for this country for the course of this year.”

Ireland’s international creditworthiness is at stake with the emergence of a gap of 20 billion euros (about $25.7 billion) between revenue and expenditure this year.

Ireland was the first European country to go into recession in the current global downturn, and its economy is forecast to contract by an unprecedented 10 percent this year.

But rarely has a developed country been asked to swallow such harsh medicine as Cowen prescribed.

In a typical case, a couple made up of a firefighter and a teacher would have to forfeit 5,000 euros (about $6,422) of their gross joint pay of 60,000 euros (about $77,000).

The country’s trade union leaders will meet in the coming weeks to decide whether they will follow French trade unionists and organize strikes.

David Begg, the Irish Congress of Trade Unions general, warned of a “revolution” from lower-paid public workers.

Already there are signs of social unrest in a country where the morale of the people, according to Enda Kenny, leader of the main opposition party Fine Gael, is “at a historic low.”

Teachers, pensioners and students have staged separate protests at government cutbacks in recent months. Meanwhile, hundreds of workers at bankrupt Waterford Crystal are in the fifth day of a sit-in at the plant in Waterford to protest the layoffs of 480 employees and the loss of their pension entitlements.

Yesterday former prime minister Bertie Ahern was jostled by students at Galway University protesting the planned introduction of college fees. Ahern was forced to abandon a public debate.

Such incidents are rare in Irish public life, but there is growing outrage against the politicians and the bankers perceived to be responsible for Ireland’s mess.

With calls for everyone — including those financially well off — to share the pain, highly-paid broadcasters on RTE, the government-subsidised TV and radio station, volunteered to take a 10 percent pay cut.

The ramifications of the economic crisis are being felt across Irish society: In the private sector there are now 300,000 unemployed. Some 10,000 people are losing their jobs every month and unemployment is predicted to rise from 6 percent to 10 percent this year.

Many developers who paid inflated prices for land at the height of the property boom are deeply indebted to the banks for sites they cannot exploit. On several major building sites, motionless cranes tower over the skeletons of office blocks draped with giant canvasses depicting what the finished buildings will look like. One prominent developer, Mike Wallace, admitted on Irish television that he is not able to pay interest on his bank loans, and said he believed other developers were in the same boat.

Businessmen who borrowed heavily and cannot meet repayments are being publicly shamed.
Oisin Fannin, former chief executive of broadband supplier Smart Telecom, was ordered by a judge to surrender his stately home when he failed to maintain payments on an 8.6 million euros (about $11 million) loan from Anglo Irish bank.

Last week, in a major setback for high-profile developer Sean Dunne, the national planning board rejected as too obtrusive his 1.5 billion euro (about $1.9 billion) high-rise scheme for the wealthy Dublin suburb of Ballsbridge.

Dunne paid 350 million euros (about $450 million) for a large site, including Jurys and Berkeley Court hotels, to create a fashionable quarter “like Knightsbridge” in London. Now the property is worth about half of that, he can do nothing with it, and he has massive debts with the banks.

The setback for Dunne, wrote Irish Times journalist Frank McDonald, a veteran critic of Dublin’s profit-driven development, “officially buried the Celtic Tiger.”

Or as Enda Kenny put it in the Dail today, “Developers and bankers are bust. The trade unions have little to offer. The game is up.”

UPDATE 4-US Treasury overpaid $78 bln under TARP-watchdog

By Kevin Drawbaugh and Karey Wutkowski

WASHINGTON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury looks to have overpaid financial institutions to the tune of $78 billion in carrying out capital injections last year, the head of a congressional oversight panel for the government's $700 billion bailout program told lawmakers on Thursday.

Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor, said her group estimated the Treasury paid $254 billion in 2008 in return for stocks and warrants worth about $176 billion under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

Warren said the Treasury, under then-Secretary Henry Paulson, misled the public about how it would price them.

"Treasury simply did not do what it said it was doing ... They described the program one way, and they priced it another," Warren said at a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. She added that Paulson "was not entirely candid" in describing TARP's bank capital injection program.

Members of the committee condemned management of the TARP program, which is barely four months old.

"Implementation ... proceeded in a chaotic, unorganized and ad hoc manner," said Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii.

Warren said Treasury may have had a reason for paying more for investments than they appear to have been worth at the time of the transaction. "Once again, Treasury needs clear goals, methods, and measurement," she said.

Warren will release a report Friday on TARP.

Neil Barofsky, another watchdog for the TARP program, told the Senate committee his office is turning to criminal investigations. "That's going to be a large focus of my office," he said.

Barofsky, the inspector general for TARP within Treasury, told the Los Angeles Times in an interview Wednesday that misrepresentations in applications for TARP funds would be grounds for criminal prosecution.

OVERHAULING TARP

The Obama administration plans to unveil a new strategy on Monday aimed at reviving paralyzed credit markets, helping struggling homeowners, and lifting the economy out of recession.

Tighter TARP management is expected to be a part of that package. A preview of that came on Wednesday when the White House announced a $500,000 annual cap on executive pay at companies receiving TARP money.

On projections by some analysts that the TARP program may need more money soon, Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh said, "There will be no additional funding for this program without airtight assurances that it will be better managed."

The TARP was launched last year by the Bush administration in response to an alarming slowdown in global capital markets triggered by a housing slump that undermined mortgage-backed bonds carried on the books of major financial institutions.

Congress approved the $700 billion program after Paulson said it would be used to buy broken bonds and clean off banks' balance sheets. But days after that approval, Paulson changed the focus to buying preferred shares in banks.

Warren told the banking committee that after three months on the job, her panel is still not getting enough answers from Treasury. She described the bailout as "an opaque process at best."

Barofsky raised concerns about potential fraud in one of several programs funded by bailout money -- the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility (TALF).

"Treasury should consider requiring that some baseline fraud prevention standards be imposed," Barofsky said in his first report to Congress.

He told the committee the government has collected more than $271 million in dividends from its TARP-financed bank shares and said the department needs a strategy for administering its holdings.

A Treasury spokesman said the department would adopt many of Barofsky's recommendations.

Treasury holds $279.2 billion in preferred shares from 319 financial institutions, paying dividends of between 5 and 10 percent, according to Barofsky's report.

The government also received common stock warrants from 230 institutions, most of which are now out of the money. The largest positions in warrants include AIG (AIG.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and General Motors (GM.N).

Yet another watchdog group -- Congress's Government Accountability Office -- told the committee Treasury needs to keep closer track of TARP money disbursed and that the program needs internal controls and "a clearly articulated vision."

Barofsky's report was posted on the Web here . (Additional reporting by John Poirier, Julie Vorman; Editing by Tim Dobbyn)

NY Times: Business Owners Hiring Mercenaries as Police Budgets Cut

In Oakland, Private Force May Be Hired for Security In a basement office that serves as a police headquarters and community center, Oakland ...