2008 Was The Most Serious Financial Crisis since the 1929 Wall Street Crash. When viewed in a global context, taking into account the instability generated by speculative trade, the implications of this crisis are far-reaching. The financial meltdown will inevitably backlash on consumer markets, the global housing market, and more broadly on the process of investment in the production of goods and services.
Thursday, 8 January 2009
India has its 'Enron moment' after revelations of Satyam founder's £1bn fraud
Ramalinga Raju, who resigned as Satyam chairman, amid a scandal that sent company stocks tumbling 70%. Photograph: STR/EPA
Indian industry vowed to improve its corporate governance today after the founder of one of the biggest outsourcing firms confessed to a £1bn fraud, the country's biggest corporate scandal in living memory.
B Ramalinga Raju, the chairman and founder of Satyam, admitted he had made up profits for years. More than 70bn rupees (£1bn) had been deceitfully booked on the company accounts.
In what is being called India's "Enron moment", Raju and his brother hid the deception from the company's board, senior managers and auditors. "It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten," Raju wrote.
But the confession pointed to serious lapses in corporate governance that will have global repercussions.
Questions have been raised about the role of the company's external auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and the role of its independent directors, who include the father of the Pentium chip, Vinod Dham, and Krishna Palepu of Harvard Business School.
Experts said the "culture of good corporate governance needed deeper roots" in India.
"The idea of corporate governance has not sunk in as much as it should. Certainly we have dynamic, modern companies in which it has but in many family-owned businesses it has not. We need truly independent directors and auditors," said T K Bhaumik, chief economic adviser to a $2bn family-run conglomerate, J K Organisation.
Other commentators said legal changes would help. For example Hong Kong made it mandatory to count proxy votes on shareholder resolutions at annual meetings. Ironically, the World Council for Corporate Governance ranked Satyam as among the best-run companies in the world.
Infosys, an outsourcing company likely to benefit from the fall of a key competitor, said the fraud was deplorable and that the government and regulators "must investigate and make necessary changes to regulations so that such incidents do not happen in future."
What is clear is that Satyam is rapidly running out of cash and its interim chief executive, Ram Mynampati, announced that the company was still struggling to determine the size of the hole in the company accounts. At a news conference at the company's headquarters in Hyderabad, Mynampati said the company was still uncertain of its financial position.
Rivals are unlikely to be interested in the company. The non-executive chairman of Infosys said it would not bid. "We have no such interest in looking at buying Satyam or anything like that. Absolutely no, we will not touch such tainted company," Narayana Murthy told Indian television.
Madoff had $173m in cheques in office, say prosecutors
Prosecutors argued the 100 cheques are further evidence Madoff should be jailed pending trial
- Daniel Nasaw in Washington and Haroon Siddique
- guardian.co.uk, Thursday 8 January 2009 19.03 GMT
- Article history
Bernard Madoff, the disgraced Wall Street trader accused of conning clients out of $50bn (£33bn), had $173m in signed cheques on his office desk when he was arrested, which prosecutors say shows he sought to keep assets from fleeced investors.
In a filing in a federal court in New York today, prosecutors argued the 100 cheques are further evidence Madoff should be jailed pending trial.
"The only thing that prevented the defendant from executing his plan to dissipate those assets was his arrest by the FBI on December 11," prosecutors argued.
Assistant US attorney Marc Litt argued that if Madoff remains free he cannot be trusted not to disperse his assets because he perpetrated a "scheme that required the defendant to lie routinely to thousands of people and a scheme which has caused extraordinary damage to individuals, families, and institutions all over the world."
Madoff remains under house arrest in his luxurious $7m Manhattan apartment. US Magistrate Judge Ronald Ellis must now decide whether to remand Madoff to jail. Madoff's attorneys argue he is not a threat and should remain free.
The revelation came as the Serious Fraud Office announced it is opening an investigation into Madoff's UK operations.
Police said the investigation would focus on "UK victims and any criminal offences that might have been committed in the UK".
"We will work closely with other law enforcement agencies to discover the truth behind the collapse of these huge financial structures. And we again ask for help from ex-employees and others," the SFO director, Richard Alderman, said.
The decision comes after the SFO was handed an interim report by Grant Thornton, the accountancy firm acting as the provisional liquidators of Madoff's UK operations.
The SFO said it was liaising closely with law enforcement counterparts in the US and with the City of London police.
It has appealed for investors or other stakeholders involved with the Madoff UK businesses to get in touch in the hope that they might shed light on the trader's dealings.
Madoff is accused of running a fraudulent pyramid scheme in one of the largest cases of financial corruption in US history. Long considered a pillar of the Wall Street community, he was arrested on 11 December after allegedly confessing to his sons that his fund was a "giant Ponzi scheme". He was later placed under curfew and ordered to wear an electronic tag. The 70-year-old faces a jail term of up to 20 years and a £3m fine.
In addition to preparing the cheques, prosecutors say Madoff posted several packages of jewellery - including 13 watches, a diamond necklace, an emerald ring, two sets of cufflinks, a diamond Cartier watch, among other valuables totalling more than $1m - to family members and friends in contravention of an order freezing his assets. Government officials have recovered much of the jewellery.
The jewellery mailings show Madoff's "willingness to disobey an explicit court order", even an order to appear in court.
They also allege he planned to distribute more than $200m to friends and family when he realised the scheme was unravelling.
The list of people allegedly defrauded by Madoff include the American film director Stephen Spielberg, the US actor Kevin Bacon, and Nicola Horlick, the UK asset manager dubbed "superwoman".
Scores of banks, charities, and hedge funds worldwide have said they lost money invested with Madoff. The Spanish bank Santander, which owns Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, has admitted a loss of £2.1bn, and HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland are nursing losses.
Madoff was registered with the Financial Services Authority, along with his two sons, brother and six other employees of Madoff Securities International, a proprietary trading operation based in London which insisted it was "not in any way part of" the New York firm.
The financier set up a company in the US with barely $5,000 almost 50 years ago. He maintained it as a family operation with its unique selling point that it would be a reliable and trustworthy haven for investments in turbulent times. In an illustrious career, Madoff chaired the Nasdaq stock exchange and even served as an adviser to the US regulator, the securities and exchange commission.
Striking Declines Seen in Manhattan Real Estate Market
For those New Yorkers who wondered what the Manhattan real estate market might be like without the ever-rising bonuses of Wall Street’s elite, the answer is now emerging: an abrupt decline in transactions, tottering prices and buyers who are still looking but unwilling to sign a contract. Those are some of the conclusions in a series of market reports on the fourth quarter of 2008 released on Monday by brokerage firms, appraisers and other real estate analysts.
Prices on completed sales of co-ops and condominiums, some negotiated months or years ago, were flat or down slightly, but the number of completed sales and newly signed contracts had plummeted, analysts said, as the economy faltered.
Pamela Liebman, president of the Corcoran Group, a real estate brokerage, said that though the Manhattan market had continued to rise in the past year when most of the American housing market was in decline, it “came to a grinding halt on Sept. 15,” when credit markets collapsed and buyers lost confidence.
“Now we see the effects of buyers sitting on the sidelines, and they will remain on the sidelines until they get some confidence back,” Ms. Liebman said. “A lot of brokers are making friends with lawyers and doctors and all those people who were left behind in the heyday of Wall Street, three months ago.”
One market report, by the Corcoran Group, found that the number of closed sales declined by at least 30 percent compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier as the Manhattan market all but stopped after the failure of Lehman Brothers in mid-September.
Other reports, using different data and criteria, found somewhat smaller but still striking declines. A report by the Prudential Douglas Elliman brokerage found that resales of existing Manhattan apartments fell by 24.8 percent, to 1,408 sales, while the sales of condominiums in newly completed buildings rose sharply. Contracts for many of those new condominiums were negotiated in a different market, a year or more ago.
Another report, by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property, put the average apartment sale price at $1.45 million in the fourth quarter, up slightly from the same period in 2007, but down 2 percent from the third quarter last year. The median price was $895,000.
These reports found the average co-op price was $1.1 million, down 8 percent from the third quarter, but up 3 percent compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier. The median price of a co-op was down 8 percent from the third quarter last year and down 4 percent compared with the fourth quarter in 2007. The average condominium price was $1.7 million in the last quarter. The reports found that the number of transactions declined by 9 percent.
But all the analysts agreed that the prices did not yet show the full impact of the recession, which will likely show up in closings in the first quarter this year. Jonathan Miller, an appraiser who prepared the data for Prudential Douglas Elliman, said that the prices of apartments in contract declined 20 percent between August and December last year, with an abrupt drop in late September and early October.
The Corcoran report noted that the number of listings on the market peaked in November, since some discouraged sellers took their apartments off the market in December. But the number of listings going into contract has fallen off each month since July. In December, the report showed 484 listings going into contract, a 57 percent decline from the 1,122 listings that went into contract in December 2007.
“The worst is yet to come; there is a blood bath coming,” said Matthew Haines, a founder of the real estate site Propertyshark.com who prepared the Corcoran report.
Beyond the first quarter this year, assessments varied. A number of brokers said that as sellers cut prices, they will create an opportunity for buyers to get good deals that were unimaginable a few months ago, especially at a time when mortgage rates are falling. Several said they were counting on the Obama administration to bring in a wave of confidence that will change the psychology of the market.
“When the market solidifies itself and everyone feels confident that we are on solid ground, you are going to have hordes of buyers,” said Diane M. Ramirez, the president of Halstead.
But others worry that the market will need more than psychology to support it. Gregory J. Heym, an economist who prepared the reports for Halstead and Brown Harris Stevens, said that unless the economy strengthens, the weakening job market in New York City could further dampen enthusiasm for real estate. He said the city had lost about 18,000 jobs in the 12 months that ended in November, while city economists are now predicting a loss of 170,000 over the next year or two.
“Each time they update the forecast, it gets worse,” Mr. Heym said.PAKISTAN: Growing unease in Kashmir over prospect of war
MUZZAFARABAD, 30 December 2008 (IRIN) - In the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir, Muzzafarabad, the possibility of war with India is a topic of discussion heard almost everywhere.
In the city, civil defence staff and volunteers have been testing equipment, including sirens. "Pakistan air force jets have been flying over Muzzafarabad. The last time we saw such mock drills was in 2001. Naturally we are very concerned about conflict," said Muhammad Sabir, 20, a student. He told IRIN he was attempting to join up with the volunteer forces, "because we should be prepared".
Tension between Pakistan and India has been at an all time high since the end of November, when terrorists hit the city of Mumbai, India's commercial hub, killing at least 180 people as they laid siege to top hotels and other buildings. India has since said the attackers came from Pakistan - a charge Pakistan denies.
Troops from Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan have been moved to the frontier with India - a fact widely reported by the Pakistan media and international news agencies, including AP.
A spokesman for the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, has declined to comment on the issue.
The situation is particularly tense in Kashmir, a mountainous territory claimed by both Pakistan and India, with administrative control over it currently divided between the two countries.
Pakistan and India have fought three wars since 1947 - in 1948, 1965 and 1971. The first two conflicts were over Kashmir.
"I saw each of these wars. Kashmiris have suffered each time, because the Line of Control [LoC] dividing the two parts of our land is always among the areas where shelling and bombardment is worse,” said Aleemuddin Khan, 75, a farmer based near Muzzafarabad.
Chakothi
In the town of Chakothi, just 11km from the LoC, labourers have been kept busy building bunkers. There is a growing sense of panic in the area (population 14,000), some 55km southwest of Muzzafarabad.
"I have had a small bunker built in my backyard. It is always wiser to be ready for any eventuality, though of course I hope conflict will not happen," Mansoor Ahmed told IRIN. He has also sent his wife and three young children to Rawalpindi, "just until things grow a bit quieter".
Kashmiris are no strangers to war. The Washington-based US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants, based on a 2007 survey, said some 17,000 people in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, displaced from homes along the LoC by a 1999 border skirmish between Pakistan and India which saw heavy shelling in Kashmir, remained in a “refugee-like” situation and were based at camps for displaced persons.
The Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IMDC) said 40,000 people were displaced at the time and most of those affected received limited or no support. The IMDC also said the fact that the Pakistan military took over land close to the LoC meant some people had lost their homes.
Photo: Christopher Horwood/IRIN |
The Line of Control passes through these Kashmir mountains - scene of decades of disputes between India and Pakistan |
There is another reason for the heightened concern in Chakothi. The earthquake of October 2005 that killed at least 73,000 people in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, hit Chakothi badly. Many of the hundreds of houses affected by the quake have been re-built, but for some families this process continues.
"Previously, we had a solid mud, stone and wood house, able to bear shock. Now there are rooms that are just built with tin and wood. I am scared it will not offer us any protection at all if there is bombing, but I cannot afford to have a bunker built or set up fortifications," said Aqueel Amjad, who lives near Chakothi.
Sense of fear
It is not in Kashmir alone that uncertainty prevails. Military aircraft swooping over Lahore, the capital of the Punjab province, have also created a sense of fear. "In the current environment Pakistan has enhanced its vigilance," chief Air Force spokesman Air Commodore Humaun Viqar Zephyr said.
A week earlier, the Pakistan Air Force said it had chased back Indian fighter plans that had violated the LoC in Kashmir.
"I am buying extra grocery supplies so we at least have the basics at home in case the border situation worsens," Uzma Ansar, 40, buying supplies at a local store, told IRIN.
Unease also runs high in villages along the Wagah border with India, which lies just 30km from Lahore.
"This area always has paramilitary troops and soldiers moving around. But these days there are more. They have advised people to build trenches for safety. Of course we worry about conflict, but let's just hope there is no war so our children don't see the horrors we saw in 1965," said Muhammad Javed, 60, a butcher, who helped supply troops with food during that war as a civilian volunteer. "War would be terrible for everyone here, especially as Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons" he said.
German Bond Auction Fails to Attract Enough Demand
By Kim-Mai Cutler and Anchalee Worrachate
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s sale of 10-year bunds lured the least demand in six months as investors shied away from a flood of government securities, raising the prospect of increased borrowing costs for Europe’s biggest economy.
Investors bid for 5.2 billion euros ($7.1 billion) of the bonds offered today, a level of demand that prompted the Bundesbank to retain 32 percent of the securities, according to the central bank’s Web site. European governments want to raise money to finance more than $96 billion in bank bailouts and stave off the worst of the global recession. France may sell 7 billion euros of bonds tomorrow and Ireland began marketing five-year debt today. Spain is also planning a sale.
“I would call this a failed auction,” said David Keeble, head of fixed-income strategy in London at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of France’s Credit Agricole SA. “This was a very poor start of auction season.”
The yield on the 10-year bund, Europe’s benchmark government security, rose four basis points to 3.19 percent by 5:14 p.m. in London. The price of the 3.75 percent security due January 2019 fell 0.34, or 3.4 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 104.70. The two-year yield fell 10 basis points to 1.64 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
Germany sold 4.1 billion euros of its 3.75 percent securities due January 2019 at an average yield of 3.12 percent today, the Bundesbank said. The government planned to sell 6 billion euros of the notes, according to Societe Generale SA and ING Groep NV.
The last time the Bundesbank retained a larger share at an auction was on July 2, when it held 2.384 billion euros, or 34 percent, of a planned 7 billion-euro sale.
‘Geared Up’
Under the German auction system, the Bundesbank retains notes and bonds at sales for the secondary market. Without such a system, three out of the four 10-year auctions held last year would have failed, based on a comparison of planned issuance and bids received.
Today’s “auction wasn’t fantastic,” said Padhraic Garvey, the Amsterdam-based head of investment-grade strategy at ING Groep NV. “The market had been geared up for a successful takedown.”
Euro-region governments will issue about 20 billion euros of bonds every week during the first quarter of 2009, up from 10 to 15 billion euros a week during the past two years, according to Societe Generale SA.
“I don’t think this is the beginning of a big negative trend,” Garvey said. “Investors are starting question whether German yields are too rich. Germany is going to have a give a greater premium for investors to take down some of this paper.”
U.K., U.S. Sales
The U.K. is planning an unprecedented 146.4 billion pounds ($221.1 billion) of debt sales in the fiscal year ending March 31. The government today sold 2 billion pounds of 4.75 percent bonds due in 2038. The securities yielded 3.98 percent and investors bid for 1.72 times the debt offered.
The U.S. sold a record $30 billion of three-year notes today yielding 1.2 percent and attracting bids 2.21 times the amount offered. President-elect Barack Obama said yesterday he expects to inherit a $1 trillion budget deficit and that similar shortfalls are in store “for years to come” as the government grapples with a recession and other spending demands.
Yield Spread
The difference, or spread, in yield between two- and 10- year German notes rose today to 155 basis points, or 1.55 percentage points, the highest level since September 2004, amid speculation the ECB will cut its main refinancing rate at its Jan. 15 meeting.
Investors expect the ECB to cut its main refinancing rate by at least 25 basis points, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG gauge of probability based on overnight index-swap rates. The odds of a reduction of 50 basis points rose to 88 percent today, from 72 percent yesterday.
“Investors are reluctant to sell shorter-dated notes a week before the ECB rate cut while supply will hurt longer-dated bonds,” Calyon’s Keeble said.
Two-year notes gained as stocks fell for the first time in seven days, stoking demand for the relative safety of government bonds. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 1.2 percent.
German bonds returned 12.2 percent last year, compared with 13 percent for gilts and 14 percent for U.S. Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch’s German Federal Government, U.K. Gilts and U.S. Treasury Master indexes.
Detroit School Lacks Toilet Paper, Light Bulbs
Donations Accepted Beginning Jan. 12
DETROIT -- A Detroit elementary school is asking for donations of toilet paper and light bulbs to keep their school functioning.The principal of the Academy of Americas sent a letter to staff, parents and partners asking for donations of items "that are of the utmost importance for proper school functioning and most importantly for student health and safety."In the letter, Principal Naomi Khalil cited budget constraints within the district as the reason why the school could no longer stock the items.The district is grappling with a more than $400 million budget deficit and is on the verge of being assigned an emergency financial manager by the state.The letter asks for toilet paper, paper towel rolls, trash bags and 60, 100 or 150-watt light bulbs."We realize that the economic situation is stressful for our entire community, but we are asking for your collaboration," wrote Khalil. "We thank you for your cooperation and we hope that as a school community we can pull together to guarantee the best possible educational environment for our children."Parents said a letter went out asking for supplies at the start of the school year."They sent out a letter for pencils, pens, they put Kleenex on there," said parent Danny Huddleston.A spokeswoman for the district said the school is not running out of supplies but instead is asking for them to ensure they have sufficient supplies to what they already have.But at least one parent said he doesn't mind helping out the school no matter the circumstance."I'm all about helping the school. If that's what they need then that's what we need to see what we can do to help the out," said Juan Oroczo.Donations are being accepted at the school's font office, beginning Jan. 12.The school is located at 5680 Konkel St. in Detroit.
Shanghai's Office Space Rental on the Edge of a Cliff
Savills, a global real estate services provider, reports that the vacancy ratio of A-level commercial buildings in
The total supply of A-level commercial office space has reached 837,000 square meters, 619,000 square meters of which are located in Pudong. The total demand in 2008 was only 366,000 square meters.
The global financial troubles are forcing many multinational companies to readjust their business growth goals and their demand for office space. Many companies have moved from key commercial areas to non-commercial or even industrial areas.
DTZ, one of the world’s largest real estate service companies, estimates that, in 2009, a further 752,608 square meters of commercial office space will be built, pushing the vacancy ratio even higher. The vacancy ratio is often a leading indicator of prices. More vacancies mean lower rents. DTZ estimates that average room rent in 2009 will be about 8 yuan/square meter/day for high-end A-level commercial space, 5 yuan/square meter/day for medium A-level space, and 3 yuan/square meter/day for B-level space.
November, 2008, figures from JLL, another real estate service company, show average rents for
Savills predicts about 754,000 square meters of A-level space will be constructed in 2009, 435,000 square meters of that in Pudong. It says the large surplus will bring rents down by 5-15%, and the average price will drop to 6.5 yuan/square meter/day.
Macquarie Group,
As the AUD has depreciated recently by 20-30%,
Morgan Stanley has also sought to sell property in
Shopaholic pensioner dies in her home after being buried under mountain of unopened items
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:28 PM on 08th January 2009
Shopaholic: Joan Cunnane was buried alive under 3ft of stuffed suitcases
A shopaholic pensioner was crushed to death under a mountain of unopened items she was hoarding, it emerged today.
Joan Cunnane, 77, who had suffered a 16-year shopping addiction, was found after police spent almost two days searching her cluttered bungalow.
The spinster, a devout Catholic who lived alone, was buried alive under a 3ft-deep mound of stuffed suitcases after they fell on top of her.
Her home in Stockport, Greater Manchester, was crammed so high with possessions that an expert search team and environmental health officer had to be called in.
Miss Cunnane had to clear a 2ft-wide path though her collection of brand new consumer valuables to get around her £180,000 bungalow, her best friend Roy Moran said today.
Unused items included electrical gadgets, clothing, umbrellas, candles and ornaments.
Even her compact Rover 100 car was filled to the brim with her stockpile of goods.
Mr Moran, also 77, said: ‘She was an only child, and had never married.
‘I think it just gave her pleasure to buy things, none of it was really essential. I once asked her how many scarves she had.
Stuffed: Miss Cunnane's bungalow where her garage is seen piled with items
‘She said, she thought about 300. I asked her why she needed that many.
She said, they were all different colours.
‘She brought everything - lots of clothes. It had been going on over 16 years from when she brought the property.
‘She went to John Lewis, Marks and Spencers and shopping malls because they are open late so she didn’t have to go home.’
Miss Cunnane, who was finally discovered dead yesterday, was last seen on Boxing Day, but was only reported missing on Tuesday by worried friends.
She went to Christmas dinner with Mr Moran at his home in Cheadle Hulme, near Stockport, before returning home.
Neighbours and friend became concened when they did not see her after Boxing day.
The alarm was raised on Tuesday after she failed to make a series of hospital appointments. Fears grew because her car which she always used to get about it in was also left on her drive.
Mr Moran said: ‘I went into the house after she went missing - I went in three times and couldn’t find her.
‘There was stuff in every room, it was so bad there were concerns about the police dogs going in.
‘There were thousands of videos. When I walked they all fell down. It was a death trap really.
‘I had seen her a lot over Christmas - we had been to a Christmas Day gathering but lost contact when she went home after that.’
Filled: Even Miss Cunnane's car was stuffed with her possessions
It took two days with two teams of six policemen removing stuff from her house to find her.
Greater Manchster Police say officers had to take extra care searching the bungalow in case it turned out to be a crime scene.
However, there are now not thought to be any suspicious circumstances surrounding the death.
‘She seemed very happy but she was concerned about her health,’ added Mr Moran, a retired hospital worker.
‘But she had the stamina to walk around the supermarkets. I don’t know where any family might be. I knew she sent 50 plus Christmas cards because I posted them for her.
‘This has been unexpected. She was a very pleasant woman with good morals and character and personality.’
Miss Cunnane, a former BT operator, attended church every week.
One neighbour said: ‘As far as I knew she had never missed church.
‘I had never been in her house but I had an idea what it was like because of her car - I don’t know how she saw out of the back of it because, it was so full of stuff.
‘Once she asked me for a favour - for me to help take the stuff out of the car to empty it. It took four hours.
‘There were all sorts - like six umbrellas, ornaments, pots, IKEA candle holders, an oil heater which was very heavy - and that was so the car could go in for an MOT.
‘We put the stuff tin the garage until the car came back. She would shop all over like Morrisons, John Lewis, IKEA - all over the place - mainly where she could use a trolley.
‘She would go to bring and buy sales and car boot sales. She was a private. She kept her self to herself even if you lived here, no-one really knew her.’
A Greater Manchester Police spokesman said: ‘An investigation into the circumstances surrounding the woman’s death has been launched, and inquiries are ongoing.’
Chancellor set to print more cash as interest rates hit record low
Alistair Darling is considering printing more money in an attempt to ease the credit crunch.
As interest rates appear certain to fall to an historic low today, the Chancellor and Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, are looking at expanding the money supply by billions and using the extra cash to buy assets ranging from government or commercial debt to private equities.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee began its two-day meeting to decide interest rates yesterday as the grim toll of job losses and closures continued. Viyella, the fashion business, went into administration, putting at risk 450 jobs at stores around the country. Marks & Spencer confirmed that it was cutting 1,200 jobs and closing 27 stores. Another 1,000 jobs are under threat at Cattles, the finance firm, and Barclays cut 400 jobs from its IT departments.
Today base rates are expected to fall to their lowest level since the Bank of England was founded in 1694. The markets expect a drop of at least 0.5 points to 1.5 per cent or even lower.
The policy of increasing the money supply to relax monetary conditions is being looked at as a “sensible contingency plan”, a senior government source told The Times last night.
Officials disclosed that the plan, adopted several years ago in Japan to try to stave off deflation — when prices generally fall rather than rise — was being studied because interest rates close to zero could not be used as a normal tool of economic management. Other ways had to be found of making more credit available, they said, and some of the ideas under consideration had already been adopted in the United States.
Mr Darling suggested this week that if the policy were adopted it would be done with the Treasury and Bank of England working “hand in hand, because the two responsibilities just become so close you would have to operate together”.
Officials denied that there was tension with the Bank over the issue, even though its independence to set monetary policy would be reduced once interest rates were so low. They said that, with the risk involved in purchasing debt and assets, the Government clearly had to be closely involved and the Bank accepted that.
Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat economic spokesman, said that printing more money could cause inflation. “But if we get into the dire straits of deflation then governments have no choice but to take drastic measures. These are policies for truly knife-edge situations.”
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “The very fact that the Treasury is speculating about printing money shows that Gordon Brown has led Britain to the brink of bankruptcy.
“Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed. It can’t be ruled out as a last resort but risks losing control of inflation and all the economic problems that high inflation brings. And to float the idea carelessly is irresponsible in the extreme as it risks losing the confidence of international markets.”
Mr Darling also warned that Britain was “far from through” the recession, signalling that he may abandon his forecast that the recovery would start in the second half of this year.
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