Thursday, 25 December 2008

Are thinking about buying a new car in the next couple of years?




Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s second-largest automaker, forecast its
irst operating loss in 71 years on plummeting demand, prompting Moody’s
Investors Service to consider downgrading the company’s top-rated credit.
The carmaker will post a $1.7 billion loss in the year through March, it said
in a statement today, scrapping a previous forecast of a 600 billion yen
profit. "The environment we’re in is extremely tough," President Katsuaki
Watanabe told reporters today in Nagoya. "We’re facing an unprecedented
emergency situation. Unfortunately, we can’t see the bottom." "Toyota’s
cost cutting can’t match plummeting sales,” said Koichi Ogawa, chief
portfolio manager at Tokyo-based Daiwa SB Investments, which manages
$28 billion. The automaker lowered its net income forecast 91 percent to
50 billion yen. The last time Toyota posted an operating loss was in 1938.

Is there any difference?


Zounds! Public sentiment toward the accelerating economic fiasco has
shifted, seemingly overnight, from a mood of nauseated amazement to one
of panicked grievance as the United States moves closer to an apparent
comprehensive collapse -- and so ill-timed, wouldn't you know it, to
coincide with the annual rigors of Santa Claus. The tipping point seems to
be the Bernie Madoff $50 billion Ponzi scandal, which represents the
rossest failure of authority and hence legitimacy in finance to date in as
much as Madoff was former chairman of the NASDAQ, for godsake. It's like
ldiscovering Ben Bernanke running a meth lab inside the Federal Reserve.

As Economy Dips, Arrests for Shoplifting Soar


Shoplifting soars as economy tanks


Published: December 22, 2008

Richard R. Johnson is the first to admit it was a bad idea.

Joe Raymond for The New York Times

Richard R. Johnson, accused of shoplifting, in front of his apartment in Elkhart, Ind., with his son.

Khampha Bouaphanh for The New York Times

Cherise Godwin of Leadsonline.com training Dallas police officers on software that helps track stolen goods being sold online.

Recently laid off from a job building trailers in Elkhart, Ind., Mr. Johnson came up a dollar short at Martin’s Supermarket last month when he went to buy a $4.99 bottle of sleep medication. So, “for some stupid reason,” he tried to shoplift it and was immediately arrested.

“I was desperate, I guess,” said Mr. Johnson, 25, who said he had never been arrested before. As the economy has weakened, shoplifting has increased, and retail security experts say the problem has grown worse this holiday season. Shoplifters are taking everything from compact discs and baby formula to gift cards and designer clothing.

Police departments across the country say that shoplifting arrests are 10 percent to 20 percent higher this year than last. The problem is probably even greater than arrest records indicate since shoplifters are often banned from stores rather than arrested.

Much of the increase has come from first-time offenders like Mr. Johnson making rash decisions in a pinch, the authorities say. But the ease with which stolen goods can be sold on the Internet has meant a bigger role for organized crime rings, which also engage in receipt fraud, fake price tagging and gift card schemes, the police and security experts say.

And as temptation has grown for potential thieves, so too has stores’ vulnerability.

“More people are desperate economically, retailers are operating with leaner staffs and police forces are cutting back or being told to deprioritize shoplifting calls,” said Paul Jones, the vice president of asset protection for the Retail Industry Leaders Association.

The problem, he said, could be particularly acute this December, “the month of the year when shoplifting always goes way up.”

Two of the largest retail associations say that more than 80 percent of their members are reporting sharp increases in shoplifting, according to surveys conducted in the last two months.

Compounding the problem, stores are more reluctant to stop suspicious customers because they fear scaring away much-needed business. And retailers are increasingly trying to save money by hiring seasonal workers who, security experts say, are themselves more likely to commit fraud or theft and are less practiced at catching shoplifters than full-time employees are.

More than $35 million in merchandise is stolen each day nationwide, and about one in 11 people in America have shoplifted, according to the nonprofit National Association for Shoplifting Prevention.

“We used to see more repeat offenders doing it because of drug addiction,” said Samyah Jubran, an assistant district attorney in Knoxville who for 13 years has handled the bulk of the shoplifting cases there. “But many of these new offenders may be doing it because of the economic situation. Maybe they’re hurting at home, and they’re taking a risk they may not take otherwise.”

Much of the stolen merchandise is sold online.

Dave Finley, the president of Leadsonline.com, which offers software that helps store owners track stolen goods being sold online and at pawn shops, said his company had seen a 50 percent increase over the last year in the number of shoplifting investigations handled by the company.

Security experts say retail theft is also being facilitated by Web sites that sell fake receipts that thieves can use to obtain cash refunds for stolen merchandise.

Andreas Carthy, the creator of one such site, denied that he was assisting with fraud.

“We provide a no-questions-asked service,” he said in an e-mail message, adding that his site was intended for people looking for prank gifts or students seeking to inflate spending to get more generous allowances from their parents.

At about $40 each, the Web site — which insists they are “for novelty use only” — sells about 80 fake receipts a month, Mr. Carthy said.

Local law enforcement and retailers have been trying new tactics to battle shoplifting and other forms of retail crime.

In Savannah, Ga., a local convenience store chain has linked its video surveillance to a police station so officers can help monitor the store for shoplifting and other crimes. In Louisiana, the police have been requiring shoplifters, even first-time offenders, to post $1,000 bail or stay in jail until their court date. On Staten Island, malls have started posting the mug shots of repeat shoplifters on video screens.

“There are more of them, and they seem more desperate,” said a store manager about shoplifters at the nation’s largest shopping center, the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minn., which has seen a 19 percent increase in shoplifting this year over last.

The manager, who asked not to be identified because she was not permitted to speak to reporters, said stealing gift cards was especially popular during the holidays.

Shoplifters also seem to be getting bolder, according to industry surveys.

Thieves often put stolen items in bags lined with aluminum foil to avoid detection by the storefront alarms. Others work in teams, with a decoy who tries to look suspicious to draw out undercover security agents and attract the attention of security cameras, the police said.

“We’re definitely seeing more sprinters,” said an undercover security guard at Macy’s near Oakland, Calif., referring to shoplifters who make a run for the door.

The guard said that most large department stores instructed guards not to chase shoplifters more than 100 feet outside the store, because research showed that confrontations tended to become more serious beyond that point.

The holidays are a particularly popular time for pilfering.

About 20 percent of annual retail sales occur in November and December, and even with precautions, the increased customer traffic makes it tougher to track thieves. Moreover, cashiers are rushed by long lines, making them less vigilant about checking for stolen credit cards.

Mr. Johnson, who was arrested last month, said that after being laid off from his $20-an-hour job at a trailer factory a year ago, he took a job for $6.55 an hour at McDonald’s. Six months later, he was laid off and has not been able to find a job since.

He and his two small children rely on his wife’s minimum-wage job at Wal-Mart, groceries from a food bank and help from his mother, he said.

“I just know things are going to get a lot rougher,” said Mr. Johnson, who is awaiting trial. He added that no matter how tough it became, he had no intention of shoplifting again.

Mr. Johnson said he was shocked that the store had decided to prosecute him for stealing such a small amount. A manager at Martin’s Supermarket said the store had a policy of prosecuting all shoplifting.

Retail security experts, however, say that people like Mr. Johnson do not pose the biggest threat to stores. People like Tommy Joe Tidwell do.

Mr. Tidwell, 35, pleaded guilty last month to running a shoplifting ring out of Dayton, Ohio, that netted more than $1 million, according to court papers.

After Mr. Tidwell would print fraudulent UPC bar code labels on his home computer, he and several conspirators would place them on items at Wal-Mart and other stores, then buy the merchandise for a fraction of the real price. They would resell the goods on the Internet, according to court papers.

Joe LaRocca, vice president of loss prevention for the National Retail Federation, said that as the holidays approached, retail security workers were keeping a close eye on receipt fraud.

But to entice shoppers, three times as many stores as last year have loosened their return policies, extending the return period and being more lenient with shoppers who lack receipts, according to the federation.

“Retailers are trying to find a balance,” Mr. LaRocca said. “They want to provide good customer service at a time when it’s crucial for customers to be able to shop comfortably or to return unwanted or duplicate gifts.

“But they also want to prevent criminals from taking advantage of them.”

Are they winners or loosers?


Madoff 'winners' may have to return 6 years of gains

By Carlyn Kolker, Tiffany Kary and Saijel Kishan

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Like some of Bernard Madoff’s clients, a Florida restaurant owner was lucky enough to withdraw part of his investment before the money manager allegedly confessed to a $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Now he’s worried he might be asked to give it back.

The 53-year-old investor, who asked not to be identified to protect his stake, took out about $600,000 this year from his $1.5 million account, using some of it to pay down a mortgage. He and other Madoff clients who withdrew funds as long as six years ago may be sued on behalf of other victims to return profits and even principal, securities and bankruptcy lawyers say.

“Right now there are Madoff winners and Madoff losers,” said Lynn LoPucki, who teaches bankruptcy law at Harvard University. “Before this is over there will be nothing but Madoff losers.”

Clients of Madoff had about $36 billion with his firm, according to a Bloomberg tally that may include some double counting. Before his arrest on Dec. 11, Madoff, 70, confessed to employees that his “giant Ponzi scheme” may have cost as much as $50 billion, according to an FBI complaint. His misconduct may have stretched back to at least the 1970s, two people familiar with the government’s inquiry of Madoff said last week.

The Florida investor, who first gave his money to Madoff five years ago, said he had no hint of fraud and would go to jail rather than give up the amount he took out.

Irving Picard, the trustee appointed to liquidate Madoff’s brokerage, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, holds the fate of the restaurant owner and other investors in his hands.

Enough Funds Left?

Picard, who didn’t return a call seeking comment on plans to sue victims to recover funds, said in a court filing yesterday that “there has not been any showing or determination that there are sufficient funds” to satisfy victim claims.

A so-called clawback of paid-out funds in the Madoff liquidation could result in lawsuits against investors such as charities, hedge funds and individuals who redeemed profits and took out principal. Nonprofit institutions such as the Carl and Ruth Shapiro Family Foundation, a foundation controlled by Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, and Yeshiva University relied on funding from Madoff investments.

Lawyers and representatives of the Shapiro and Lautenberg foundations didn’t return calls seeking comment. In a statement, Rick Matthews, a Yeshiva University spokesman, said, “Our lawyers and accountants are in the process of an investigation.”

‘Further Risk’

“Charities are looking at their legal options as regarding their right to recoup money,” said Mark Charendoff, president of the New York-based Jewish Funders Network, whose 1,000 members fund Jewish causes and are assessing losses from Madoff investments. “I don’t know that they’ve been focused on or are aware that they may in fact be at further risk of loss.”

Bankruptcy laws authorize a trustee like Picard to recover money that was distributed as part of a fraud and share it among the victims, LoPucki said.

“The purpose of these laws is to balance the losses among the various investors, but how that balance is supposed to be struck is not clear,” LoPucki said.

Under New York state law, which can be invoked for Madoff recoveries, a trustee can seek redemptions going back six years, said Tracy Klestadt, a New York bankruptcy lawyer.

In a similar case, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Adlai Hardin in White Plains, New York, ordered investors of defunct hedge-fund manager Bayou Group LLC in October to disgorge profits they’d taken out. Investors were required to pay back any gains they’d redeemed involving “fictitious profits.” Before the fraud was discovered, Bayou paid out more than $135 million, according to court papers.

‘Good Faith’ Rule

Hardin also ruled some investors would have to hand back their principal. Only investors who acted in “good faith” -- a legal standard that makes investors prove they didn’t have knowledge or suspicion of fraud -- could protect their initial stake, Hardin ruled. He said investors could show they had good faith if they didn’t see any “red flags” when they withdrew the funds.

That decision could be a guide for Picard, Klestadt said.

The Bayou decision set a high bar for investors who hope to protect their principal, said Carole Neville, a lawyer representing Bayou investors.

“What the Bayou case holds at the moment, is, if you had any reason to feel uncomfortable about your investment and took your money out, you don’t have good faith,” Neville said.

‘Almost Impossible’ Standard

“On the surface it seems a standard that’s almost impossible for people to meet,” said Robert Crane, president of New York’s JEHT Foundation, a group dedicated to criminal justice matters that relied on donors who invested with Madoff and said it’s closing in January.

Seeking money from investors who say they were defrauded can result in protracted litigation. In the Bayou case, which is being appealed, $20 million of the $33 million recovered from redeeming investors went to pay legal fees, Neville said.

“It’s a very unattractive position to be in,” said Marvin Pickholz, a litigation attorney at Duane Morris and former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement official. “You are now going against your fellow shareholders who are in the same situation you are in.”

The trustee would have to prove that the money was redeemed while the alleged fraud was occurring and would have to puzzle through Madoff’s books and records to prove the amounts that were redeemed, Pickholz said.

“It could be a nightmare,” he said.

Bankruptcy trustees “spend huge amounts of money trying to get money from some investors and give it back to other investors,” LoPucki said. “The incentive of the trustee and the lawyers is to churn, to bring lots of cases, spend lots of time and charge lots of fees.”

When you loose all your money what is left is your life!

MADOFF INVESTOR COMMITS SUICIDE

Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, a founder of the hedge fund Access International Advisors, was found dead Tuesday in his office in Manhattan. His fund reportedly lost as much as $1.4 billion that had been invested with Bernard L. Madoff, the money manager accused of running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.

Mr. de la Villehuchet, 65, was pronounced dead Tuesday morning, and a New York City Police spokesman, Paul Browne, told DealBook that he had apparently committed suicide. He was found with wounds to his arms, with one leg propped up on the desk and a trash can nearby to catch blood. (Read more about Mr. de la Villehuchet here.)

He had been trying to recover the money that Access International raised in Europe and invested through Mr. Madoff’s business, according to La Tribune, which first reported the news, citing an unnamed source.

According to New York City Police Commission Raymond Kelly, Mr. de la Villehuchet was at the office last night at 7 p.m. on Monday, working late. Unusually, he had asked the cleaning staff to help clean his office. Later in the evening, one of the firm’s partners asked security to check on the office and see if Mr. de la Villehuchet was still there.

The door was locked, Mr. Kelly told DealBook.

When security opened the door Tuesday morning, they found Mr. de la Villehuchet, with cuts to his arm, wrist and his bicep apparently made with a box cutter. No suicide note was found, and while pills were present, it is unknown if Mr. de la Villehuchet had ingested them.

Mr. de la Villehuchet’s firm managed Luxalpha, a $1.4 billion Luxembourg-based fund sold across Europe, invested in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities. Access International last week called Mr. Madoff’s arrest “a shocking development” in a note to investors. Investors in the fund included a unit of Rothschild and several clients of the Swiss bank UBS.

UBS had been the custodian and administrator of the fund until this year when Access International took over. No one answered the phone at Access International’s New York office. No one responded to a phone call to Mr. de la Villehuchet’s home.

UBS has stated that Mr. Madoff was not on the bank’s wealth management recommended list as a direct investment option but it produced and sold funds containing the investment manager’s products. UBS would establish fund of funds structures at clients’ requests.

By early afternoon, a small scrum of reporters and photographers had gathered in front of the narrow entrance to Access International’s office on Madison Avenue in midtown Manhattan, only a few blocks away from Rockefeller Center.

–Zachery Kouwe, Michael Wilson and Michael J. de la Merced

Bank Medici Ensnared by Madoff Losses After Winning Fund Award

More European Madoff suckers emerge

By Zoe Schneeweiss and Matthias Wabl

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- A month ago, Bank Medici AG was celebrating after its biggest hedge fund won first prize in Germany for “amazing” performance.

Officials at the Vienna-based private bank are now trying to determine if the investments have any value left. Two of Bank Medici’s largest funds had all of their assets with Bernard Madoff, the New York-based money manager who confessed earlier this month to running a Ponzi scheme. Bank Medici, founded in 1994 by Chairman Sonja Kohn, said last week it had $2.1 billion with Madoff.

Kohn had “active relationships” with 2,000 funds, according to the company’s Web site. Her favorite was Madoff, based on the amount of money she had with him. Bank Medici may be Europe’s second-biggest loser from Madoff’s collapse, after Spain’s Banco Santander SA, which has said it has about $3.1 billion of client funds at risk. Madoff, 70, was arrested Dec. 11 after he told employees that his firm may have cost clients as much as $50 billion.

“Madoff attacked people who didn’t do their due diligence, but placed their confidence in friends, or the word of mouth,” said Michel Derobert of the Swiss Private Bankers Association in Geneva. “That’s what makes this case particularly vicious.”

Kohn, 60, hasn’t said publicly whether she has met Madoff or disclosed when she began investing with him. Kohn, who owns 75 percent of Bank Medici, and Chief Executive Officer Peter Scheithauer weren’t available for comment this week, company officials said.

Opera House

Investment Chief Andreas Schindler, who greeted a reporter at Bank Medici’s fourth-floor suite facing Vienna’s 140-year-old Opera House, said he isn’t allowed to comment. The company said in March that it had assets under management of $3.3 billion.

Federal prosecutors in the U.S. are trying to piece together how Madoff’s scam worked. Securities Investor Protection Corp. said last week that Madoff’s financial records are “utterly unreliable” and may take six months to sort out. Washington-based SIPC is in charge of liquidating Madoff’s firm.

Bank Medici’s Herald USA Segregated Portfolio One and Herald (Lux) US Absolute Return funds, which invested with Madoff, were closed to customer redemptions on Dec. 11, the same day Madoff was arrested.

The flagship Herald USA fund, started in 1996, reported a return of 6.5 percent this year as of Nov. 28, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Competing funds fell by an average 17 percent in the same period. “The fund didn’t have a single negative quarter since it came into existence,” it said in a Nov. 24 statement. The fund had $1.9 billion of assets in March.

German Award

Herald Luxembourg, opened in March, has been “solid as a rock,” Bank Medici said in a Sept. 29 statement, adding that the fund’s year-to-date return was 3.9 percent. The fund had assets of $225.7 million as of Oct. 31, Bloomberg data show.

Bank Medici won first prize last month from IBC Consulting in the German Hedge Fund Awards because of its stellar returns, which were due to Kohn’s extensive contacts, the bank said in a Nov. 24 statement.

The award reflected Bank Medici’s one-year gains as of the end of September, said Volker Schlicht, head of corporate finance at IBC Consulting, in an interview yesterday.

Bank Medici said it sold the two Madoff-based funds to institutional investors. About 7 percent of the funds’ assets were held by Austrian clients and the rest was with customers from around the world, Bank Medici said on Dec. 16.

The company has strong links in Austria, having served as an adviser to the country’s Minister of Economics from 1996 to 2000, as well as to the minister of foreign affairs and the Vienna Stock Exchange.

UniCredit, BNP Paribas

Kohn had “a number of very wealthy clients from all over the world, from Italy to Israel and the Middle East,” Der Standard newspaper reported on Dec. 16. Johannes Farnleitner and Ferdinand Lacina, former ministers of economics and finance of Austria, sit on the bank’s supervisory board, according to the company’s Web site.

Bank Medici did business with at least two European banks -- UniCredit SpA and BNP Paribas SA -- that have reported losses related to Madoff. Milan-based UniCredit also has a 25 percent stake in Bank Medici.

Pioneer Alternative Investments, a Dublin-based unit of UniCredit, paid Bank Medici commissions of 835,000 euros in 2007 for referring investors, Bank Medici said in its annual report issued on June 23. Pioneer invested almost all of its Primeo Select Fund with Madoff, according to a fact sheet on its Web site. Primeo Select has about $280 million of assets.

Paris-based BNP produced and issued for Bank Medici a so- called tracker-certificate to replicate the performance of its Herald USA Absolute Return Fund, according to a document on BNP’s German Web site. The certificate let people put as little as 100 euros ($140.13) into the structured investment products.

Fees and Commissions

This isn’t a product for BNP clients, a bank spokeswoman said yesterday. BNP has said it has about 350 million euros at risk from Madoff via “its trading business and collateralized lending” to funds of hedge funds. The company said Dec. 14 that it has “no investment of its own” in Madoff’s funds.

Bank Medici has increased its staff fivefold since 2004 when it had three employees and earnings of 41,000 euros. The company reported net income of 541,000 euros in 2007, and said it collected fees of 9.7 million euros and paid out commissions of 7.1 million euros.

NY Times: Business Owners Hiring Mercenaries as Police Budgets Cut

In Oakland, Private Force May Be Hired for Security In a basement office that serves as a police headquarters and community center, Oakland ...